Erdogan GOES ROGUE! Sweden in NATO?!

As the NATO summit in Vilnius approaches, Erdogan continues to play games with both the West and the Russians. What is his strategy and where will this lead?

Turkish President Erdogan has stolen the spotlight ahead of the July 12th NATO Summit in Vilnius Lithuania. What was expected to be a by the book, controlled escalation of the NATO proxy war (not just against Russia but Europe as well) in Ukraine, has turned into a firestorm of diplomacy, backstabbing, and confusion. After meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Ankara, Erdogan announced that he fully supports Ukraine’s entry into NATO and then promptly returned the commanders of the Azov battalion to Ukraine. This is a direct stab at Putin as Erdogan had promised to keep said fighters in Turkey. It appeared that with Turkey’s turn towards Ukraine the Vilnius summit may end up being more than just a welcoming party for Sweden and a new aid package for Kiev.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had already expressed extreme confidence in Sweden’s accession into the “defense” alliance and Joe Biden has already tossed cold water on any hope of Ukraine advancing in the process. Erdogan has thrown a wrench in these plans and stated that Sweden’s entry into NATO is contingent upon Turkey’s advancement in the process of joining the European Union! Talks of Turkey’s entry into the EU have long been closed. Between the situation with Greece, the occupation of Cyprus, the monolithic control Erdogan has over the media in Turkey, and the basic fact that Turks are not Europeans, there are many reasons why Turkish EU membership is a pipe dream. But just as everyone thought Erdogan had betrayed Russia and embraced NATO, he turns the upcoming Vilnius summit on its head.

On World War Now we pay close attention to Russo-Turkish relations as we believe they will likely be the catalyst for a worldwide hot conflict. With Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Kherson, and Zaporozhye, Turkey is no longer the dominant Black Sea power. Its control over the Bosphorous and Dardanelles still gives it power over Russia in that regard but as Turkish and Russian proxies clash in Syria and Africa the relationship between the two powers will always be somewhat frictious. However with his latest remarks about Sweden it is clear that Turkey is putting its own interests first while dealing with both the West/NATO and Russia.

This is why Turkey wants to continue its plans for a “Gas Hub” with new pipelines and refineries with Putin, as well as return Above fighters, send drones, and continue the grain deal with Ukraine. Turkey reaps massive profits from the grain deal while Russia gains nothing. Turkey does not want to see escalation by NATO against Russia as they do not want to go to war if Article 5 is invoked. Turkey knows the West will expect much from them as NATO’s easternmost member, and dominant Black Sea NATO power. However Turkey also does not want to see Russia succeed in its territorial goals and push all the way to Odessa. This would greatly disrupt the balance of power to Turkey’s detriment. Turkey hopes to continue getting rich from the grain deal, get rich and capitalize on the shakeup in the energy market, help Azerbaijan in its territorial goals, and get what it wants in Syria. Despite all of these goals involving conflicting, hostile parties, only the Syria issue seems to be facing much resistance as Russia continues to support Assad. Perhaps it could be said that the West pushes back on their EU dream.

Erdogan is in power in Turkey for the foreseeable future and it is safe to say that this tug of war between East and West will be the hallmark of his third term. We know from Met. Neophytos of Morphou that when Erdogan falls, pro-western Kemalists (much like his latest electoral opponent who barely lost the presidency) will take over. It is clear to see how such a shift would almost immediately put Turkey onto a war path with Russia. But for now it seems that Erdogan is happy to push the envelope right up to the edge with both sides, keeping escalation on his terms.

UPDATE: The US, NATO, Sweden, and Turkey have come to an agreement. Sweden will enter NATO and Turkey will begin the process of exploring EU membership with Sweden’s support. Some sources are claiming that Turkey will become an EU member in the next two years.

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